Private sector entrepreneurs have asserted that many could starve to death if the production lines fail to reopen after a two-month-long shutdown caused by the novel coronavirus. At a dialogue organised by the Resurgent Bangladesh Thursday in Dhaka, they prescribed relaxing the lockdown further gradually so that the jobs do not vanish for the poor putting them on the verge of starvation. They also suggested dividing the country in zones based on infection first, and then prioritising the important production units while reopening. Economists present at the programme, however, voiced for continuing the lockdown for a few more months as the Covid-19 cases have an increasing trend. A lack of coordination, measures and information is intensifying the pandemic situation, they argued. The outcome will be disastrous if the public transportations and factories return to a full reopening amid the health crisis. Apart from ensuring assistance to agriculture, small and micro enterprises, the economists called for maintaining health safety more strictly. Former president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry Asif Ibrahim moderated the talk on retrieving the economic momentum while fighting the ongoing crisis. Dr Masrur Reaz, chairman of Resurgent Bangladesh and the research institute Policy Exchange, presented the findings of a survey conducted on the coronavirus fallout. At the programme, Metropolitan Chamber Chairman Dr Nihad Kabir presented a summary titled “Lockdown Exit Strategy Framework for Bangladesh”. Dr Nihad Kabir said the upcoming national budget should not be obsessed with GDP, inflation or budget deficit. “Rather how the poor will be protected, the economy can be retrieved and issues like bringing balance between supply and demand should get priority,” she added. She said most of the food and cash support from the government reached the poor during the shutdown. “It cannot be said that lockdown hindered the implementation. But people will starve to death if the shutdown is not relaxed,” she commented. She recommended maintaining production and caring about health issues at the same time. Dr Nihad Kabir said region-wise reopening considering the risk can be a solution. For this model, the type of production will be considered first before resuming operation of a factory. Dr Masrur Reaz said the virus will leave a massive trail of destruction on the country’s economy. “A single-day lockdown costs Tk3,300 crore to the economy. At least 125 employees become jobless if the service sector sees a demand fall of $1 million,” he further said. Dr Reaz said all the economic indicators including export, import, remittance and employment will be red in the upcoming days. More people will fall below the poverty line. Referring to a survey, he said about 28 percent SME entrepreneurs have seen a drastic fall in the revenue, by more than 50 percent in cases. About half of the SMEs will lay off more than half of their current staff in a bid to cut the costs. About 68 percent of SMEs said they will have to shut down their businesses permanently if the lockdown persists for more than four months, he added. Meantime, Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, advised verifying whether the coronavirus has deepened the income inequality in Bangladesh. Economist Ahsan H Mansur said a lack of coordination in government approaches has deteriorated the situation. Any information provided by the government is arguable, and the information about the virus spread in the country is not out of the argument. He said gradual reopening will also benefit businesses. “People will not be able to cross the border and foreigners will also not visit the country if things turn bad. This could hurt international trade and investment,” he added. Former chairman of the National Board of Revenue Mosharraf Hossain Bhuiyan, Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD) President Abul Kasem Khan, outgoing Bangladesh envoy to Sri Lanka Riaz Hamidullah and former principal secretary Md Abdul Karim took part in the discussion among others.
