The World Bank (WB) on Sunday in its latest report stated that the ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) might leave a drastic impact on Indian economy which might decelerate to 5 percent in 2020, and to 2.8 percent in the next year. In terms of Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices the Indian economy is forecast to grow at a rate of 1.5 percent to 2.8 percent in 2021, and might rebound to 4-5 percent in 2022, said the WB report. The reasons cited for the economic slump are — halting economic activity, collapsing trade, and greater stress in the financial and banking sectors, added the report. Indian media quoted World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia Hans Timmer as saying that the growth is expected to rebound to 5 percent in fiscal 2022 as the impact of COVID-19 dissipates, and the fiscal and monetary policy support pays off with a lag. He added that among the steps that India can take to address this challenge could be to focus on mitigating the spread of the disease, and to make sure that everybody has food. “It is very important to prepare for a rebound and that means there should be a focus on temporary jobs programmes, especially at the local levels. Those initiatives should be supported. And it is important to prevent bankruptcies especially of a small and medium sized enterprise,” Timmer was quoted as saying in reply to a question. And, if the domestic lockdown is prolonged, then the economic result can be much worse than what the World Bank has in its baseline range of forecasts, he further stated. The report titled “South Asia Economic Focus” said that the impact of the pandemic will hit hard the low-income people, especially informal workers in the hospitality, retail trade, and transport sectors who have limited or no access to healthcare or social safety nets. It notes that the COVID-19 shock will likely reinforce inequality in South Asia. As played out across the region, the sudden and large-scale loss of low paid work has driven a mass exodus of migrant workers from cities to rural areas, spiking fear that many of them will fall back into poverty. While there are no signs yet of widespread food shortages, the report warns that a protracted COVID-19 crisis may threaten food security, especially for the most vulnerable.
